Every Tuesday, read OCULUS MUNDI, a strategic lens on the world to track global transformations and anticipate disruptions.

Click on image above (on mobile) or on left side (on PC) to open the newsletter published in French - you can have it translated using your preferred AI tool.

Discover OCULUS MUNDI, a strategic lens on the world to track global transformations and anticipate disruptions.

Click on image above (on mobile) or on left side (on PC) to open the newsletter published in French - you can have it translated using your preferred AI tool.

Rationale:

The escalation of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, engulfing the Gulf countries and the wider Middle East, marks a structural turning point in the evolution of the international system. Beyond immediate military dynamics, this confrontation reflects deeper transformations: the erosion of multilateral governance and the progressive fragmentation of the global order, accelerating new forms of economic and geopolitical competition.

This webinar aims to unpack the underlying drivers of the conflict (casus belli & modus operandi), while situating it within broader strategic frameworks, including power projection doctrines, regional security architectures and intensifying global rivalries.

At the same time, the marginalization of the United Nations system and the weakening of international legal norms signal a deeper shift: the weakening of the post-World War II system as a credible framework for conflict regulation and economic stability.

The Gulf region, long structured around a web combining security guarantees, energy flows and financial attractiveness, has entered a phase of heightened instability. Its traditional pillars are being tested simultaneously, with direct implications for energy supply, maritime trade corridors, regional financial hubs and cross-border investments. Disruptions across these domains would not remain contained but would propagate rapidly across global value chains.

For businesses and investors, these developments are not abstract. They translate into increased exposure to geopolitical risk, disruptions to supply chains, heightened energy volatility and growing uncertainty around regulatory and operating environments. Anticipating these shifts is no longer optional, it is a prerequisite for maintaining operational continuity and ensuring strategic resilience in an increasingly fragmented world.

In Washington, the Lebanese ambassador, Nada Moawad, the Israeli ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, and the US ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, met for unprecedented direct talks in decades. In Lebanon, tensions are already rising following demonstrations by Hezbollah supporters and the call from its secretary-general, Naim Kassem, to cancel this meeting.
What are the real objectives of these talks, what are their chances of success, and what could their consequences be for Lebanon?
L'Orient-Le-Jour spoke with Karim El Mufti, political scientist and founder of GDI Conseil.
Date: 14 April 2026